Former U.S. envoy Larry André warned that swiftly recognizing Somaliland could destabilize the Horn of Africa and damage U.S. regional partnerships.
In a policy essay, André cited deep clan divisions and political rifts, urging the U.S. not to act without broad internal and regional consensus.
He cautioned that unilateral recognition could trigger unrest, provoke military responses, and undermine fragile progress in Somali political reconciliation and security.
André outlined three U.S. options: maintain the current stance, open a liaison office in Hargeisa, or formally recognize Somaliland.
He rejected outright recognition, warning it would harm ties with Mogadishu, Somali regions, and the African Union, advocating a middle-ground approach.
The former ambassador noted most Isaaq clans back independence, while Dir and Darod communities support federal unity with Somalia.
He pointed to recent government crackdowns in Las Anod as evidence of Somaliland’s harsh response to internal dissent and minority voices.
Drawing lessons from Eritrea and South Sudan, André said recognition usually follows dialogue with the parent state and African Union involvement.
He urged resuming stalled talks between Mogadishu and Hargeisa, such as those mediated by Djibouti in 2020, or exploring hybrid governance models.
André concluded that resolving Somaliland’s status and degrading Al-Shabaab’s influence are essential to lasting peace and progress in Somalia and the Horn.
