MOGADISHU, Somalia – Somalia’s political rifts have taken on a new dimension as the federal government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Ahmed Madobe, the president of Jubaland, stand on the verge of an armed confrontation.
Tensions escalated last Monday when the federal government deployed hundreds of military soldiers to Raskamboni, a town in the Lower Jubba region, about 274 km south of Kismayo, in response to Madobe’s re-election, which was deemed invalid for defying the country’s unified electoral system.
Despite the region falling under his jurisdiction, Madobe rejected the election invalidation and considered the troop deployment an imminent threat to his leadership. He also deployed his own troops near the town, further escalating the tensions.
On Monday, Jubaland authorities moved to isolate the military personnel stationed in Raskamboni by cutting off phone communications and ordering all airlines in Somalia to avoid flights to and from the town due to security concerns.
The region’s Minister of Civil Aviation, Abdullahi Dubad Shill, urged airlines to follow the directive to ensure the safety of people and property. He also warned that any airline that fails to comply will be held accountable for any consequences.
“With Raskamboni facing a dangerous conflict that could pose serious security risks, we urge all airlines in Somalia to avoid flights to and from the area to protect the safety of Somalia’s people and property,” Shill said.
The move comes three days after President Madobe issued a 15-day ultimatum for the federal government to withdraw its troops from Jubaland. He also warned that failure to meet his demands would lead to military action against the troops stationed in his region.
Beyond troop withdrawal, President Mohamud is seeking to arrest Madobe on charges of electoral system violations and treason, with plans for him to stand trial in Mogadishu. If detained, Madobe would become the first sitting regional leader to face trial.
With 11 days remaining on Madobe’s deadline, political analysts suggest that Mohamud is unlikely to back down, given Madobe’s defiance of his vision for one-person, one-vote elections across Somalia.
Despite calls for restraint, security experts now warn that armed conflict seems inevitable, as Madobe and Mohamud remain hesitant to resolve their differences at the negotiation table. Experts also caution that without an opportunity for dialogue, the standoff could escalate into a full-blown conflict.
In 2013, during his first term, President Mohamud clashed with Madobe when he refused to step down, leading to several days of fighting in Kismayo. Madobe ultimately held his ground and has continued to lead Jubaland since.
