MOGADISHU, Somalia – Somali-Kenyan elders have voiced concerns that the ongoing political tensions in Somalia could escalate into a full-blown conflict, leading to an influx of refugees into Kenya’s border counties, including Wajir and Garissa.
Speaking at a press conference in Garissa, the elders urged Kenyan President William Ruto to take action to prevent the spillover of the Somalia conflict from triggering another refugee crisis in Garissa, a place they consider home.
They also called on President Ruto to engage in talks with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to de-escalate the political tensions in Jubaland, a regional state in Somalia that shares a border with Kenya.
Kenya is now home to 299,567 Somali refugees in Dadaab refugee camps, with another 17,915 residing in Nairobi. These numbers, provided by the UNHCR, only reflect those who have been officially registered.
Tensions in Somalia escalated last month when President Mohamud’s government rejected the re-election of Ahmed Madobe as Jubaland President for another five years, arguing that the election undermined his government’s efforts for a unified electoral system.
The Somali government also deployed hundreds of military personnel to Raskamboni, a town in the Lower Jubba region that falls under Madobe’s jurisdiction, without his consent. The troop deployment, it said, is part of a plan to secure areas that will be impacted by the African Union troop drawdown.
However, viewing his re-election as constitutional, Madobe condemned the troop deployment to his region, which he saw as a threat to his leadership. He also gave the government a 15-day deadline to withdraw its troops from the Lower Jubba region.
He reinforced his security by sending hundreds of his own troops to establish defensive positions near Raskamboni. He also cut communications and grounded all flights to and from the town in an effort to isolate the government troops.
Political analysts suggest President Mohamud is unlikely to abandon his vision of implementing a nationwide election system, which Somalia has not used since 1969. Meanwhile, Madobe is counting down his 15-day deadline, with nine days already passed and six days remaining for troop withdrawal.
Despite calls for restraint, the feuding leaders remain unwilling to resolve their differences at the negotiation table. Security experts have warned that without a chance for dialogue, the standoff could escalate into an armed confrontation.
In 2013, during his first term, President Mohamud clashed with Madobe when he refused to step down, leading to several days of fighting in Kismayo. Madobe ultimately held his ground and has continued to lead Jubaland since.
Critics question Mohamud’s push for the one-person, one-vote system, given that he secured his own re-election through an indirect system he once supported. While in opposition, he also rejected similar reforms proposed by his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who later led the country to an indirect presidential election.
They argue that Mohamud has failed to learn from past mistakes, proposing reforms similar to those of Farmaajo, which were ultimately unsuccessful. Opposition leaders also believe Mohamud is using the unified system as a political strategy to extend his term.
It remains unclear whether Mohamud will set aside current tensions with Jubaland and compromise, as Farmaajo did, to avoid bloodshed, a power vacuum, and political unrest, or proceed with his plan for nationwide elections.
