Deadly clashes in Somalia’s Jubaland region are raising alarm, exposing cracks in federal governance and aiding Al-Shabab’s territorial resurgence, experts warn.
Somalia comprises five semi-autonomous states often at odds with Mogadishu: Puntland, Jubaland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and South West—each with varying federal loyalty.
Ahead of elections, Mogadishu’s push to consolidate control has created power vacuums that Al-Shabab is exploiting to retake key areas.
Last week, two soldiers died in fighting between federal forces and Jubaland loyalists, following calls for military mobilization on both sides.
Five other Somali troops were killed in similar clashes in July, as political tensions in Gedo region continued to escalate sharply.
Security analyst Samira Gaid said the political focus has weakened anti-Al-Shabaab operations, enabling the group to regain ground in strategic regions.
“Once attention shifted from fighting Al-Shabaab to politics, we started seeing losses on the battlefield,” she told AFP in an interview.
According to Gaid, Al-Shabaab is using the instability as a recruitment tool, drawing new fighters from disillusioned and displaced communities.
The clashes also underscore deeper flaws in Somalia’s federal system, created without full political consensus during its 2012 formation, analysts argue.
“There wasn’t enough agreement when Somalia adopted federalism, leading to constant friction,” said Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group.
Jubaland severed ties with Mogadishu last year after Ahmed Madobe’s disputed re-election—his third term since 2012—was labeled illegitimate by authorities.
An arrest warrant was issued for Madobe, who governs from Kismayo and remains defiant of federal control, especially in the Gedo region.
With elections nearing, Mahmood said both Madobe and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud are competing for influence over Gedo’s electoral significance.
President Mohamud is pushing for Somalia’s first one-person, one-vote election next year—a plan strongly opposed by Madobe and his allies.
In July, Mohamud appointed Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur “Janan” as head of Jubaland security, a controversial figure linked to past abuses.
Janan later claimed control of Beled Hawo, a key Gedo town, declaring plans to install a new administration aligned with Mogadishu.
Since June, violence in Gedo has displaced 38,000 people internally, with over 10,200 crossing into Kenya, according to official displacement data.
Clan rivalries also complicate Jubaland politics. The dominant Gedo clan opposes Madobe’s leadership, accusing him of marginalization and political exclusion.
Gaid noted the federal government may be trying to leverage clan divisions, though it lacks universal support within Jubaland’s communities.
Traditional elder Mohamed Jumale said federal efforts to “annex” Gedo from Jubaland will fail, warning of more instability if attempts continue.
