MOGADISHU, Somalia – Tensions over Somalia’s new one-person, one-vote electoral system were high on Tuesday as Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre met with a Kenyan delegation in Mogadishu. The delegation, carrying a message from Kenyan President William Ruto, discussed ways to strengthen bilateral ties, focusing on security, trade, and regional cooperation.
Reliable sources say the talks primarily centered on how to use Kenya’s influence and military presence in the region to help remove Jubaland president Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Ahmed Madobe) from power in Kismayo, a port town located about 500 km southwest of Mogadishu.
The visit came just hours after President Madobe canceled Prime Minister Barre’s planned trip to Kismayo, where he was set to facilitate talks aimed at resolving tensions between Madobe and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. These talks were supposed to help pave the way for an idirect leadership election in Jubaland.
Tensions escalated further on Monday when Madobe severed ties with the central government and appointed a seven-member election committee to oversee his own indirect leadership election—an action that goes against President Mohamud’s push for a unified, nationwide election process.
Sources say that President Mohamud and Prime Minister Barre are working through diplomatic channels to remove Madobe, who remains determined to conduct an election to secure his re-election. If they succeed, the sources warn, other regional states like Hirshabelle, South West, and Galmudug might follow suit, undermining President Mohamud’s goal of a one-person, one-vote system for Somalia.
President Madobe’s power is believed to be bolstered by Kenyan forces stationed in Kismayo as part of the African Union mission in Somalia. These forces helped him drive Al Shabab militants out of the town and played a key role in securing his position as Jubaland’s president—a role he’s held for more than 10 years.
Madobe has remained in office by holding indirect elections whenever his mandate expires, effectively ensuring his re-election and extending his rule. Now, however, he’s facing pressure from the central government to hold a popular election, but Madobe believes such an election would undermine his chances of winning.
The Kenyan forces in Kismayo continue to help Madobe maintain regional security. At times, he’s used their presence to further his political agenda, closing air and ground borders to hold elections, declare himself president, and then lifting the restrictions once he considers himself legitimate. He seems to be trying to play the same game with the central government in Mogadishu.
On Tuesday, before the Kenyan delegation arrived, Prime Minister Barre reached out to Kenyan military officials deployed under the ATMIS mission, who are securing Kismayo’s airport, to arrange an alternative route. His efforts fell short, however, as the officials told him they couldn’t guarantee his safety due to the ongoing political tensions.
Being from Jubaland, Barre is reportedly blaming himself for the situation with Madobe. Sources say that if Madobe goes ahead with his planned election in Kismayo in the coming days, Barre may be forced to resign, as he failed to prevent such an election in a region he represents as prime minister.
Reliable sources also indicated that President Madobe has deployed heavy weaponry and armed forces to secure Kismayo’s airport and the city, blocking any planes from landing without his authorization.
Political analysts say the actions of Jubaland and Puntland are a significant blow to President Mohamud’s efforts to hold a popular election in Somalia. They also pointed out the irony of Mohamud now backing such reforms after opposing similar proposals from his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who was locked in political battles with Madobe and Puntland’s Said Deni.
Now, President Mohamud finds himself in a similar situation, pushing for popular elections while Jubaland plans to hold its own indirect election, supported by Puntland and other opposition figures. The regional states that Mohamud once supported in their opposition to Farmaajo’s government are now working against his vision.
