MOGADISHU, Somalia – Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre has warned Jubaland state leadership against holding an election he says would violate the country’s electoral system, amid growing political tensions over the one-person, one-vote method.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Barre accused President Ahmed Madobe of lacking legitimacy and planning to conduct a self-election in Jubaland, warning him against using military force to push through an illegal election.
This comes as Jubaland has already scheduled its presidential election for next Monday, escalating political tensions between President Madobe and the central government in Mogadishu.
If held as planned, three other regional states in Somalia, whose mandates have ended and are also due for direct elections, may follow suit, which could undermine President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s vision for unified elections.
Barre said Madobe is seeking to secure a third term by holding an illegal election that would guarantee his re-election. “This violates Jubaland’s constitution,” he added. “This is unacceptable.”
Being from Jubaland, Barre reportedly feels responsible for the tensions with Madobe. If Madobe goes ahead with his election plan in the coming days, Barre may have to resign for failing to stop it in the region he represents as prime minister.
Madobe has already cut ties with the central government, using his usual tactics—closing air and land borders to hold his own election, declare himself president, and then lift the restrictions once he sees himself as legitimate. It’s a strategy he used against then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo before.
Now, all eyes are on Madobe as he pushes to hold his own election, backed by Puntland and opposition leaders, while the central government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, rejects the plan, saying it violates the country’s election process.
Political analysts are questioning Mohamud’s vision for a direct election, especially since he himself was elected indirectly on May 15, 2022, when he defeated Farmaajo. They point out that, while in opposition, Mohamud rejected similar reforms from Farmaajo, only to now push for the same changes he once opposed.
His stance has also drawn criticism, with opposition leaders accusing him of trying to stay in office beyond his mandate. On Saturday, they claimed he’s dismantling Somalia’s government, pushing the country to the brink of collapse. “We are witnessing an unprecedented crisis, where the very institutions holding the country together are being eroded,” they said.
The analysts said President Mohamud is facing the same challenges as his predecessor, Farmaajo, whose electoral proposals were rejected and then led to an indirect presidential election. They also question whether Mohamud will compromise, set aside the political tensions, and lead Somalia into an indirect election, just as Farmaajo did, for the greater good.
Somalia has never had a nationwide electoral system. Since General Siad Barre took power in 1969, clan affiliations have shaped the country’s politics, with key positions like president, prime minister, and speaker being allocated based on clan representation rather than direct elections. Both houses of Parliament, which elect the president, are made up of members selected by clan delegates, not by direct vote. Clan influence has dominated Somalia’s political landscape for decades.
Reported by Abdirisak Mohamud Tuuryare
