MOGADISHU, Somalia – Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre faced a blow in the face after failing to rally support from influential clan elders and business figures of the Ogaden clan in his bid to oust President Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland.
Prime Minister Barre traveled from the capital, Mogadishu, to Nairobi, Kenya, in a bid to persuade his fellow Ogaden clan members to back his efforts against Madobe, whom he views as a political threat to his premiership, despite sharing the same clan background.
Reliable sources say the elders rejected his appeal due to recent political actions, including an arrest warrant issued for Madobe and the deployment of troops into his territory without prior consultation. Barre returned home with little to show for his efforts.
Despite facing the consequences of his missteps, Barre is now on board with military action to remove Madobe and bring him, hands cuffed, to stand trial for treason and other charges, including violating national unity, leaking state secrets, and defying the unified electoral system in Somalia.
On Wednesday, Barre ordered the deployment of additional troops, military hardware, and satellite internet equipment to Raskamboni town in the Lower Jubba region, where hundreds of military and police personnel are stationed.
This comes a day after Jubaland authorities cut all communications and urged airlines to avoid flights to and from the town as part of a military strategy to isolate the recently deployed troops. This also follows President Madobe’s 15-day deadline for the withdrawal of troops from his region.
Tensions escalated last week when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Barre rejected Madobe’s re-election as President of Jubaland, citing his defiance of Somalia’s new nationwide electoral system, which has not been used since 1969.
Madobe is counting down the 15-day deadline, with six days already passed and nine days remaining for troop withdrawal. Political analysts suggest that both Mohamud and Barre are unlikely to back down, asserting that they are determined to remove him by any means necessary.
Despite calls for restraint, an armed conflict now seems inevitable, as the feuding leaders remain unwilling to resolve their differences at the negotiation table. Security experts have warned that without a chance for dialogue, the standoff could escalate into a full-blown conflict.
In 2013, during his first term, President Mohamud clashed with Madobe when he refused to step down, leading to several days of fighting in Kismayo. Madobe ultimately held his ground and has continued to lead Jubaland since.
Critics question Mohamud’s push for the one-person, one-vote system, given that he secured his own re-election through an indirect system he once supported. While in opposition, he also rejected similar reforms proposed by his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, who later led the country to an indirect presidential election.
They argue that Mohamud has failed to learn from past mistakes, proposing reforms similar to those of Farmaajo, which were ultimately unsuccessful. Opposition leaders also believe Mohamud is using the unified system as a political strategy to extend his term.
It remains unclear whether Mohamud will set aside current tensions with Jubaland and compromise, as Farmaajo did, to avoid bloodshed, a power vacuum, and political unrest, or proceed with his plan for nationwide elections.
