MOGADISHU, Somalia – At least 120 soldiers arrived in the capital, Mogadishu, on Friday after being flown in from Raskamboni, a town in the Lower Jubba region, approximately 274 km from Kismayo. The soldiers reportedly defected from Jubaland, one of Somalia’s regional states.
This defection comes amid rising political tensions between Jubaland and the central government. The tensions escalated on Monday when military and police units were deployed to Raskamboni in response to the re-election of President Ahmed Madobe through an indirect process, which defied Somalia’s unified electoral system.
The defected soldiers are expected to undergo registration and payroll integration and may receive rank promotions for their decision to surrender and avoid bloodshed in a conflict with Somali National Army (SNA) forces deployed in the region.
Viewing the troop deployment as a threat to his leadership, President Madobe set a 15-day ultimatum for the government to withdraw its recently deployed troops from Raskamboni. He threatened military action if his demands were not met.
Madobe also warned that the government would face severe consequences for maintaining a military presence in areas under his jurisdiction. “We have given the police and military personnel deployed there 15 days to withdraw. Any failure to do so will result in severe repercussions.”
The central government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, seeks the removal of Madobe from office. His re-election has also been deemed invalid, as it does not align with the country’s new popular electoral system. He has been in office since 2012 through an indirect election process.
Tensions further escalated on Wednesday when a court in Mogadishu ordered the arrest of President Madobe for treason, while Jubaland also issued an arrest warrant for President Mohamud on charges of treason and allegedly aiding Al-Shabaab.
Despite calls for restraint, political analysts now say an armed conflict seems inevitable, as Madobe set a 15-day ultimatum and the central government refuses to withdraw its troops from his region, determined to remove him from office. Analysts also warned that if both sides fail to resolve their differences through dialogue, the current standoff could escalate into a full-blown conflict in the region.
