Dry conditions have worsened in Somalia, with humanitarian partners across the country reporting critical water shortages during the month of February.
In the worst-hit areas in Somaliland and Puntland, aid agencies have already observed stress-induced migration among pastoralist communities, with some moving to urban centres in search of day labour or to join relatives.
The dry conditions follow a poor 2018 Deyr rainy season (Oct-Dec), even as ongoing conflict and forced evictions continue to disproportionately affect those who are already displaced.
While the number of people in IPC 3 (Crisis) has remained stable over the last year – albeit with a geographical shiti to the north – the number of people in IPC 2 (Stressed) has increased by more than 10 per cent.
If the next Gu rainy season (April-June) performs poorly, those in the Stressed phase may find their situation deteriorating further.
The current rainfall projection indicates normal- to above-average precipitation across most of the country; even in the drought-affected areas of Somaliland, the likelihood of normal rainfall is around 70 per cent.