MOGADISHU – A decades-old dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia has spilled into Somalia, turning the strategic Gedo region into a flashpoint.
The row, rooted in Nile water rights, now risks drawing the Horn of Africa into a more dangerous confrontation.
Egypt is accused of using a security pact with Somalia to challenge Ethiopia’s influence in a region it considers strategic territory.
Ethiopia, in turn, faces allegations of launching aggressive military operations inside Somalia to neutralize emerging threats and reassert its regional dominance.
Gedo is also the scene of a power struggle between Somalia’s federal government and the Jubaland regional administration.
Since last week, government troops led by Gedo’s intelligence chief, Abdirashid Janan, have fought Jubaland forces in Balad Hawo.
Janan’s forces seized the town, as Jubaland reportedly prepares a new offensive to retake it, raising fears of further clashes.
Tensions between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe erupted last year over indirect elections in Kismayo.
Madobe secured a third term through an indirect vote, challenging President Mohamud’s push for unified elections.
The Somali government accused Madobe of treason, and the Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant for him on charges of treason and election violations.
President Mohamud deployed federal forces into Raskamboni, which falls under Madobe’s jurisdiction in the Lower Jubba region.
Madobe’s forces attacked Raskamboni, capturing federal soldiers and later sending many back to Mogadishu, escalating tensions.
Over 100 government soldiers fled into Kenya after escaping from the attack on their bases in Raskamboni, before being returned to Somalia.
Madobe now accuses the Somali government of seeking Egyptian military bases in Gedo and remains a close ally of Ethiopia.
Ethiopia, which has troops in Gedo, is reportedly helping Madobe reclaim Balad Hawo from Janan’s forces.
In January 2024, relations worsened again after Ethiopia signed a port deal with Somaliland, granting naval access in exchange for possible recognition, angering Somalia.
Somalia called the deal a “blatant violation” of its sovereignty and turned to Egypt for diplomatic and security backing.
In August 2024, Somalia and Egypt signed a defense pact, raising prospects of Egyptian troops and bases in Gedo.
Somalia and Ethiopia resolved their diplomatic tensions in December in Ankara during talks mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Despite enjoying stable relations, Ethiopia again launched a military action in Gedo, including an attack on a Somali army base in Doolow earlier this month.
Regional officials say the Ethiopian military in Doolow gave Janan and his federal troops a three-day ultimatum to withdraw from Gedo following direct talks between Ethiopian officials and Jubaland leaders.
Analysts warn the escalating rivalry threatens regional stability, placing Somalia at the center of a geopolitical struggle across the Horn of Africa.
