By the time the dust begins to settle on the Russian invasion of Ukraine a new “war” maybe poking its head over the horizon, this time with China.
Reports show the USA spending over $24 billion on a long range missiles system based in Okinawa, Taiwan and the Phillipines. China has repeatedly made in more than clear that US missiles that can reach the entire country based in Taiwan is a “Red Line”. In other words, China will be attacking these bases in Taiwan. Anyone that doubts this only needs to go back and check out what Russia was saying about “Red Lines” in Ukraine.
A major conflict between the USA and China will be different than that presently unfolding between Russia and the West/USA. To start with China and the USA have major economic links going both ways. The USA depends on Chinese imports to keep the shelves at a multitude of chains stores in the USA supplied and the Chinese economy is quite dependent on jobs manufacturing these products.
The problem for the US in this conflict is that China can find alternate markets much easier and quicker that the USA can find countries willing and able to take over what China is producing, as well as willing to take an increasingly dubious US dollar in exchange
Both countries economies will be seriously damaged with the people of the USA facing empty shelves for much of what they depend on in their day to day lives. The Chinese population will be facing major, potentially destabilizing, unemployment and a wave of bankruptcies.
Still, China,with its centralized economy and leadership should be able to weather these shocks while the USA will face not only empty shelves but a huge wave of economic collapse as all the Walmarts, Targets, Home Depots, Lowes and so many, many more major companies will be effective shut down with no relief in site. The economic consequences of closing the door to Chinese imports will make the dislocations experienced under the COVID restrictions look minor in comparison. How the USA will survive this combined with the potential of the dollar losing its international currency status is something I dont think the National Security Establishment in the USA has really come to grips with.
By many accounts China is already preparing for this day, at least militarily. The war with Russia should be bringing this home to all of China, both leadership and the masses, that you can’t trust the USA, that international law is the law of the jungle where only the strong survive. Pax Americana depends on a subservient, complaint system of hegemony based on the dominance by the US military as well as of international finance by the US dollar. When the dollars starts being rejected by more and more countries internationally at some point the debt based economy dominant in the USA will hit a dead end. Going to war with China could well be the tipping point.
What happens then bodes ill for Babylon USA. As for Taiwan, they will be left wondering where all the US promises to defend them went because just like the US military knows that attempting to confront Russia militarily in the Ukraines is a no go, the US trying to confront a technologically advanced Chinese military in its back yard is a recipe for an ass whipin’. Like in Ukraine, the USA will be fighting China until the last Taiwanese.
Thomas C. Mountain is a educator, historian and independent journalist who spent the last 15 years living and reporting from Eritrea. He can be reached at thomascmountain at g mail dot com